Probabilistic Risk leveraging
C-FER Risk Models

The C-FER risk models use probabilistic methods to estimate quantitative risk levels for all major threats to pipeline integrity. The risk models have evolved and improved through 25 years of use and validation by oil and gas pipeline operators world-wide.

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How you can leverage a probabilistic risk assessment

C-FER risk models consider the nine threat categories described in ASME B31.8S. The models use two techniques to estimate the probability of failure for each threat:

  • Historical-based approaches use industry failure rates and attribute-based adjustment factors to derive failure probabilities. Threats assessed using this approach include Construction Defects, Equipment Failures, Incorrect Operation and Maintenance, and Seismic Hazards.
  • Structural Reliability approaches leverage pipeline condition data within engineering assessment models to produce failure probabilities. Threats assessed using this approach include: Manufacturing Defects, Equipment Impact, External Corrosion, Internal Corrosion and Stress Corrosion Cracking.

The probability of failure (“PoF”) is rolled up across all nine threats as it is calculated down the line for each segment to determine the PoF for a small leak, large leak, or rupture (big leak). Each system is then rolled up across the entire pipeline system.

C-FER is widely considered to be a leading industry expert regarding pipeline risk assessment. The embedded quantitative C-FER models within Cognitive Integrity Management (“CIM”), allow pipeline operators to have real-time capabilities for assessing risk on a rolling mile for each pipeline segment while at the same time being able to monitor the entire pipeline system through CIM’s embedded Microsoft PowerBI dashboards. Operator based targeted reliability thresholds are assigned industry equivalent rupture rates tiered by quadrant, so operators know how they are doing compared to their peers.

Solution Demo

Home Dashboard

Learn how to read, filter and drill down into data to gain insights about the state of your pipeline system.

Natural Q&A

Quickly pinpoint the information that you are looking for across your entire pipeline system.

Business Value

Incorporate real-time quantitative PoF into your standard IMP process by identifying anomalies that exceed your targeted reliability thresholds, drill-down to view previous excavations and as found results and let CIM suggest the ideal ROI between tool runs and digs.

No more importing, exporting, and manipulating data across siloed systems, the entire business process is now centralized in a modern enterprise-wide SaaS solution based on some of the most industry validated risk models by C-FER.

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Elevate your risk program by quantifying it based on data with the incorporation of probabilistic risk assessments available in real-time.

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